Fredericksburg & Spotsylvania National Military ParkSeite 19 von 54
Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania in 2021: a warm year, with December 9.0 °F above normal
The Mid-Atlantic Inventory and Monitoring Network measures ecosystem "vital signs" across the Mid-Atlantic region, and weather and climate are among them. Its 2021 summary for Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania National Military Park averages county-scale data for the counties around the park, Caroline, Orange, Spotsylvania and Stafford in Virginia, from 1895 on. The data and analyses come from NOAA's Climate at a Glance program.
Weather versus climate
The summary draws the line this way: weather is the short-term change in the atmosphere, over minutes to months, and climate is what the long-term pattern of 30 years or more leads you to expect. Climate is what you might expect, such as a hot summer; weather is what you get, such as a warm rainy day. The 2021 figures are measured against that long record.
2021 month by month
The year was warm and moderately dry, ending as the 36th driest on record. The average temperature was 58.0 °F, 2.6 °F above the long-term average, and 38.12 inches of precipitation fell, 4.25 inches below it. Departures compare 2021 with the averages for 1895 to 2020. October (+6.8 °F) and December (+9.0 °F) were far above normal. The source's text gives two different rankings for how warm the year was, so no warmth rank is given here.
| Month | Average temperature (°F) | Departure (°F) | Precipitation (in.) | Departure (in.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 36.5 | +2.0 | 1.98 | -1.12 |
| February | 36.6 | +0.2 | 3.94 | +1.18 |
| March | 49.2 | +4.2 | 2.89 | -0.60 |
| April | 56.2 | +1.6 | 2.83 | -0.52 |
| May | 63.5 | -0.5 | 1.90 | -2.00 |
| June | 74.2 | +2.2 | 4.11 | +0.06 |
| July | 77.9 | +1.8 | 4.62 | +0.44 |
| August | 77.6 | +3.2 | 7.30 | +2.91 |
| September | 69.9 | +1.9 | 2.89 | -0.81 |
| October | 63.5 | +6.8 | 3.95 | +0.60 |
| November | 45.0 | -1.0 | 1.13 | -1.82 |
| December | 46.0 | +9.0 | 0.59 | -2.54 |
| Year | 58.0 | +2.6 | 38.12 | -4.25 |
The long trend
Since 1895, annual average temperature in the surrounding counties has risen by about 0.19 °F per decade, and annual total precipitation by about 0.22 inch per decade.
Figure from the National Park Service's page: annual average temperature (°F) and annual total precipitation (in.) for the counties around the park, with dashed lines for linear estimates of change.
Park Service scientists' models estimate that by 2100 the park's annual average temperature will rise by 2.9 to 8.8 °F, from the best-case to the worst-case scenario, and that annual total precipitation will rise by 8 to 14 percent (Gonzalez and others, 2018, give the details).
Sources
- National Park Service, Mid-Atlantic Inventory and Monitoring Network, "2021 Weather In Review: Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania National Military Park" (https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/2021-weather-in-review-fredericksburg-and-spotsylvania-national-military-park.htm); the lead photograph, a Creative Commons photograph by a non-federal photographer, the seasonal-ranking charts and the seasonal and ranking claims that contradict the monthly tables are left out; rewritten in hubnx's own words.