February 2022 outlook: La Niña favors a warm south and east, a wet north and a dry West

La Niña was still shaping the U.S. outlook for February 2022, but not perfectly: the Gulf Coast broke the usual pattern. Climate.gov walks through NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook, which favored a warmer-than-average month across the southern and eastern U.S., cooler and wetter conditions across the north, and a drier-than-average month in the West.

Precipitation outlook for February 2022: much wetter than average (green), average, or much drier than average (brown). Darker colors mean greater chances, not bigger departures, and white means a wet, dry or near-average February are all equally likely. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on Climate Prediction Center data.

Temperature outlook for February 2022: much warmer than average (red), average, or much cooler than average (blue). Darker colors mean greater chances, and white does not mean "average." NOAA Climate.gov image, based on Climate Prediction Center data.

Temperature: warm south and east, cool north

The outlook resembles what is typical in a La Niña winter. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the southern and eastern U.S., with the highest likelihood (50-60%) along the East Coast from Florida to southern Maine. The odds tilt toward a colder-than-average February from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Plains.

La Niña changes the strength and location of the Pacific jet stream, which alters the path of weather systems downstream across the U.S. The result is often warmer temperatures in the south and colder in the north. La Niña is not the only influence, so the outlook does not copy an average La Niña: forecasters also used climate model output and other climate phenomena, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Average location of the jet stream and typical temperature and precipitation impacts during La Niña winter over North America. Map by Fiona Martin for NOAA Climate.gov.

Precipitation: wet in the north-central U.S., dry in the West

La Niña shows in the precipitation outlook too. Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys, with the highest chance of a wet end to meteorological winter across the High Plains in Montana and North Dakota and across the Midwest. A drier-than-average February is expected in Florida and in California and the Southwest. Central California has the highest likelihood (50-60%) of precipitation totals well below average.

The Gulf Coast bucks the trend. La Niña would normally bring a below-average signal there, but a wet forecast for the first couple of weeks leaves equal chances of above-, below- or near-average totals for the whole month.

Drought

Drought across the contiguous U.S. as of January 25, 2022; dark red marks the most severe level. Climate.gov map, based on U.S. Drought Monitor data.

As of January 25, over 55% of the country was in some level of drought. In the West, the area in drought grew from 77% to 88% of the region, while exceptional drought (D4), the worst category, dropped from 22% to 3% across the West. The 2020-22 drought kept breaking records: the January 25 map marked a record 70 weeks in which at least 40% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought.

Drought forecast for the Lower 48 states in February 2022. Brown marks areas where experts believe drought will persist or worsen; green marks areas where it is likely to end. Climate.gov map, based on Climate Prediction Center data.

Drought improvement is unlikely across much of the West, and development is likely across Arizona and southern New Mexico and western Texas. It is also expected across the Central Plains, because of a lack of snowpack, frozen ground and warmer, drier-than-average conditions. The better news: heavy precipitation expected in the first half of the month is likely to ease, and even remove, drought across Texas and the western Gulf Coast.

Sources

• NOAA Climate.gov, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/february-2022-us-climate-outlook-la-ni%C3%B1a-influence-still; rewritten in hubnx's own words.