U.S. Fluid Milk Drinking Keeps Falling: 0.49 Cup a Day in 2019, Down From 0.78 in 1990

Americans drank 0.49 cup of fluid milk a day in 2019, down from 0.78 cup in 1990, and the drop was fastest in the 2010s. Plant-based milks explain only a small share of it. This summary follows research by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS).

The long decline

ERS's Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System shows daily per person fluid milk consumption fell in each of the past seven decades.

Fluid cow's milk consumption by decade, 1970 to 2019. Chart from ERS's page.

The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020 to 2025, recommend 2 to 3 cup-equivalents of dairy a day, depending on age, gender and activity. A cup of milk, a cup of yogurt, 1.5 ounces of natural cheese or 2 ounces of processed cheese each counts as one, as does a cup of fortified soy beverage. Almond, rice, coconut, oat and hemp milks do not count, because their nutrition differs from dairy milk. About 90 percent of Americans miss the dairy recommendation. Cheese and yogurt consumption per person has more than tripled since 1970, but total dairy consumption peaked in 1987 at 1.57 cup-equivalents a day. It was 1.55 in 2009 and 1.49 in 2019, held down by the faster fall in milk.

Who drinks less, and how

ERS researchers studied national dietary intake surveys from 2003 to 2018, in which people reported 24 hours of eating and drinking, and household store-purchase data from 2013 to 2018. Milk is mostly drunk as a beverage, yet people of all ages cut back significantly. Children aged 12 and under drank 1.07 cup-equivalents a day in 2003 to 2004 and 1.10 in 2009 to 2010, then fell steadily to 0.79 in 2017 to 2018. Teenagers and adults also declined steadily after 2011 to 2012.

Milk as a beverage, by age group. Chart from ERS's page.

Milk with cereal fell too, with the steepest drop among children, from 0.39 cup-equivalent in 2003 to 2004 to 0.25 in 2017 to 2018. Adults dropped less, and the change among teenagers was not statistically significant.

Milk with cereal, by age group. Chart from ERS's page.

Milk added to coffee, tea and other beverages showed no statistically significant change. Adults averaged about 0.09 cup-equivalent a day this way in 2017 to 2018, much as in 2003 to 2004.

Milk in other beverages, by age group. Chart from ERS's page.

What is behind it

• Generations. A 2013 ERS report found newer generations drink less milk than older ones did at the same ages: people born in the 1970s drank less in their teens, 20s and 30s than those born in the 1960s, and those born in the 1980s and 1990s look likely to drink even less as adults. Every decade brings more beverage choices.
• Other drinks. Sugar-sweetened drinks rose in the 1980s and 1990s and seemed to replace milk, but they have declined in recent years as well. ERS studied 2013 to 2018 household purchases of milk, soft drinks, juice, bottled water, and coffee and tea drinks and found little evidence that one drink's gain offsets another's loss.
• Plant-based milks. They do compete with cow's milk, and their sales negatively affect milk purchases. But their sales rose far less than milk sales fell, so they explain only a small share of the trend and are not likely to be its primary driver.

What USDA does and what else competes

Several USDA programs encourage milk and dairy, including the National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs, WIC and the Special Milk Program. Schools in the lunch program must offer 1 cup of milk with each lunch. Children aged 6 to 12 got 35 percent of their fluid milk at school, and teenagers aged 13 to 18 got 25 percent. Both groups drank more on weekdays.

Dairy farmers and processors also pay into checkoff programs overseen by USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service. The Fluid Milk Processor Promotion Program, funded by milk processors, uses generic advertising to maintain and expand markets for fluid milk, and the National Dairy Promotion and Research Board works to raise sales of all dairy products. Meanwhile, ERS research in 2017 found thousands of new beverages enter the market each year, competing partly on price and on package claims such as organic, probiotics, calcium, lactose-free or non-GMO. Future milk trends may depend on how well milk processors and other makers judge which attributes appeal.

Sources

• USDA Economic Research Service, "Fluid Milk Consumption Continues Downward Trend, Proving Difficult to Reverse" (https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/june/fluid-milk-consumption-continues-downward-trend-proving-difficult-to-reverse); rewritten in hubnx's own words.