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Using a method based on geology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Dnieper-Donets Basin and North Carpathian Basin provinces of Ukraine, Romania, Moldova and Poland hold, on average, 13 million barrels of oil and 2,643 billion cubic feet of natural gas in continuous (unconventional) accumulations that could be recovered with current technology.
What was assessed
- Dnieper-Donets Basin, Ukraine: Paleozoic shale gas and tight-sandstone gas.
- North Carpathian Basin, Ukraine: continuous oil in the Oligocene Menilite Shale (in some areas as young as the lower Miocene).
- Across several provinces of Ukraine, Romania, Moldova and a small part of Poland: lower Paleozoic, mainly Silurian, shale gas.
In the Dnieper-Donets Basin, two total petroleum systems were identified: a Paleozoic Composite system containing the Carboniferous Tight Sandstone Gas assessment unit, and the Carboniferous Rudov Bed system containing the Rudov Bed Shale Gas unit. In and around the North Carpathian Basin, a Paleozoic Composite system holds the East European Lower Paleozoic Shale Gas unit (mainly Silurian and some Ordovician mudstones), and an Oligocene Menilite Shale system holds the Menilite Shale Continuous Oil unit.
The four assessment units: the Menilite Shale oil unit southwest of Lviv, the long East European Lower Paleozoic shale gas belt running southeast to the Black Sea, and the two small Carboniferous gas units in eastern Ukraine. USGS map, on a National Park Service base.
The criteria
To count as a continuous resource outside the United States, the source rock in a unit had to:
- contain at least 2 percent total organic carbon by weight;
- contain Type I, II or IIS kerogen;
- be thermally mature enough to generate oil and gas;
- include more than 15 metres of organic-rich shale.
All four systems meet them. Recovery per well, drainage areas and success rates came from U.S. shale-gas, continuous-oil and tight-sandstone-gas wells.
| Assessment unit | Mean potential area (acres) | Mean drainage per well (acres) | Mean recovery per well | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carboniferous Tight Sandstone Gas | 271,667 | 100 | 0.544 billion cu ft | 0.8 |
| Carboniferous Rudov Bed Shale Gas | 265,000 | 107 | 0.72 billion cu ft | 0.7 |
| Oligocene Menilite Shale Continuous Oil | 88,667 | 267 | 0.077 million barrels | 1.0 |
| East European Lower Paleozoic Shale Gas | 3,491,667 | 160 | 0.185 billion cu ft | 0.7 |
Half of wells were expected to succeed in each unit (range 10 to 90 percent).
The results
| Assessment unit | Oil, mean (million barrels) | Gas, mean (billion cubic feet) | Natural gas liquids, mean (million barrels) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carboniferous Tight Sandstone Gas | — | 590 (0 to 1,771) | 12 (0 to 36) |
| Carboniferous Rudov Bed Shale Gas | — | 624 (0 to 1,984) | 12 (0 to 41) |
| East European Lower Paleozoic Shale Gas | — | 1,391 (0 to 4,642) | 11 (0 to 40) |
| Oligocene Menilite Shale Continuous Oil | 13 (3 to 29) | 38 (8 to 90) | 2 (0 to 6) |
| Total | 13 (3 to 29) | 2,643 (8 to 8,487) | 37 (0 to 123) |
Ranges run from a 95 percent to a 5 percent chance. A zero at the low end of a gas unit reflects the chance that no continuous gas exists there: the geological probability was judged to be less than one.
Sources
- Ukraine Assessment Team (Timothy R. Klett, Christopher J. Schenk, Michael E. Brownfield, Ronald R. Charpentier, Tracey J. Mercier, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller and Marilyn E. Tennyson), Assessment of Undiscovered Continuous Oil and Gas Resources in the Dnieper-Donets Basin and North Carpathian Basin Provinces, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and Poland, 2015, USGS Fact Sheet 2016–3082, November 2016. https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20163082
- Results: USGS Energy Resources Program, http://energy.usgs.gov
Licencia: CC0 1.0 (dominio público) · Adaptado de pubs.usgs.gov
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