Index page for ENSO blog posts

Find your favorites! Here's an index of ENSO blog posts grouped a bit differently than what you get from the Climate.gov search function or what a simple listing page produces. The categories are simply the main ways that the ENSO blogging team tends to remember and talk about previous posts. Please keep in mind that everything about this index list is manual, from remembering/finding articles to include to the alphabetization of the guest authors section. I will almost certainly have missed some posts or made other mistakes. If you see a problem, feel free to point it out in the comments. I update this page a few times per year, so it will eventually get corrected.

ENSO 101 and other basics of seasonal forecasting

What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a nutshell?
El Niño and La Niña Alert System
Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities?
How ENSO leads to a cascade of global impacts
The Spring Predictability Barrier: we’d rather be on Spring Break
Why making El Niño forecasts in the spring is especially anxiety-inducing
Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one?
Oceanic Kelvin waves: The next polar vortex*
Betting on Climate Predictions
The Walker Circulation: ENSO's atmospheric buddy
The ENSO Signal and The Noise
United States El Niño Impacts
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season
El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions
ENSO Flavor of the Month
Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring
How will we know when an El Niño has arrived?
Why Past ENSO Cases Aren’t the Key to Predicting the Current Case
The life and death of El Niño
Exploring ENSO in Ecuador
ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models?
A visit to the zoo: climate patterns that can precede ENSO
The Rise of El Niño and La Niña (Bjerknes feedback)
Team effort: the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
What we talk about when we talk about the jet stream and El Niño
Weather repetitions and climate fitness
What are teleconnections? Connecting Earth's climate patterns via global information superhighways [aka the one about Rossby waves ] |
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Posts about monitoring ENSO

Weather repetitions and climate fitness
The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign
Dearest TAO: A love letter to marine-based observations
Exactly the same, but completely different: why we have so many different ways of looking at sea surface temperature
El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond
Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one? |
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Posts about things other than ENSO

What is predictability?
Zooming in on some of NOAA’s latest seasonal hurricane forecast research
How humans can affect the strength of tropical cyclones
Meet ENSO’s neighbor, the Indian Ocean Dipole
The polar vortex is going to make you put on a sweater. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Seeing Red Across the North Pacific Ocean: the Blob
A visit to the zoo: climate patterns that can precede ENSO
The Madden Julian Oscillation has been active so far this winter. Here is why it matters.
Another non-ENSO thing that affects seasonal forecasts
El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex
The tropics as a prime suspect behind the warm-cold split over North America during recent winters
The role of the ocean in tempering global warming
Butterflies, rounding errors, and the chaos of climate models
Your eight-minute speed date with the Pacific Meridional Mode
Going out for ice cream: a first date with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
What is the MJO, and why do we care?
ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think
How much do climate patterns influence predictability across the United States?
Other climate patterns that impact U.S. winter climate
Forecasting, fast and slow
February and March madness: How winds miles above the Arctic may have brought wintry weather to mid-latitudes
CPC’s new week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlook: a success story about bridging weather and climate
The Pacific-North American Pattern: the stomach sleeper of the atmosphere
Coming to pay per view: Reigning champ ocean vs. the scrappy land
What is the jet stream?
Ultraviolet (UV) radiation: Don’t feel the burn, avoid it!
Do you know that El Niño has a little brother? (Atlantic Niño)
On the sudden stratospheric warming and polar vortex of early 2021
What are teleconnections? Connecting Earth's climate patterns via global information superhighways [aka the one about Rossby waves ] |
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Posts about forecast verification

Verification of the 2022-2023 U.S. winter outlook
The 2021-22 Winter Outlook: How well did it do?
Winter outlook 2020-2021: a look back
Grading the 2019-2020 winter outlook
Winter outlook 2018-2019: How’d we do?
Meteorological winter is over. How’d we do? (2017-18 winter)
Winter Outlook 2016-17 – How did we do?
The Incredible Growth of the 2015-16 El Niño followed by the Incredible Shrinking La Niña Forecast
Winter’s finally over: How did the NOAA Climate Outlook do in 2014-15?
Were Model Predictions of El Niño a Big Bust? (2014)
30% of the time, it rains every time
Seasonal Verification Part 2: Electric Boogaloo
Seasonal Verification Part 3: Verify with a Vengeance...This time it's probabilistic.
How Good Have ENSO Forecasts Been Lately? |
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Posts about ENSO impacts

How does El Niño influence winter precipitation over the United States
S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?
What we talk about when we talk about the jet stream and El Niño
El Niño means an even floodier future is on the coastal horizon
Did La Niña drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23?
Surf’s up: How does ENSO impact Hawaii?
June 2022 ENSO update: how does your garden grow (aka the newer post about La Niña and hurricanes )
Moose tracks through Alaska and ENSO
ENSO and salmon
La Niña's delayed effect on sizzling Texas summers
The long arm of the California drought
A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser
How might El Niño affect wildfires in California?
ENSO and tornadoes
More U.S. drought in a second-year La Niña?
Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?
What about snow during La Niña winters?
How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017?
Fun with Statistics: El Niño and California Rainfall
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season
United States El Niño Impacts
Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?
ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think
No, you can’t blame it all on El Nño
With El Niño likely, what climate impacts are favored for the summer?
Writing about La Niña, the U.S., and the Jet stream and THIS HAPPENS.
Changes in ENSO impacts in a warming world
CSI ENSO: The case of the missing central Pacific rainfall
ENSO and your health: how the 2015-16 El Niño led to early warnings for global disease outbreaks
When rivers reach the sky
Tornados and La Niña, 2021 edition
Catch a wave: how waves from the MJO and ENSO impact U.S. rainfall |
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Posts about ENSO and climate change

(July 2023) Has climate change already affected ENSO?
(January 2023) How the pattern of trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean is critical for understanding the future climate
(October 2022) Where does global warming go during La Niña?
(May 2021) Is ENSO running a fever, or is it global warming?
(September 2018) Changes in ENSO impacts in a warming world
(May 2016) A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser
(April 2015) Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models
(December 2014) Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2
(September 2014) ENSO + Climate Change = Headache |
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Posts previewing the winter outlook

Another winter in La Niña’s grip? November update to NOAA's 2022-23 Winter Outlook
What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2021-22 Winter Outlook
What to expect this winter: November update to NOAA’s 2020-21 Winter Outlook
No ENSO? NOAA still issues Winter Outlook! (2019-20)
Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook
Winter is coming: NOAA’s 2017-2018 Winter Outlook
What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2016-17 Winter Outlook
What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2015-16 outlook reveals what conditions are favored across the US
What's in store for the United States this (2014-15) winter? |
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Posts with guest authors

Richard Allan: The role of the ocean in tempering global warming
John Allen: Tornados and La Niña, 2021 edition
Weston Anderson: ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields
Marybeth Arcodia: Catch a wave: how waves from the MJO and ENSO impact U.S. rainfall
Gerry Bell: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season
Amy Butler: El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex
Amy Butler: February and March madness: How winds miles above the Arctic may have brought wintry weather to mid-latitudes
Laura Ciasto: Ultraviolet (UV) radiation: Don’t feel the burn, avoid it!
Kim Cobb: A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser
Mat Collins: Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2
Jason Furtado: Look South, ENSO Forecasters!
Karin Gleason: How do NOAA scienitsts predict the annula global temperature ranking ahead of time?
Eric Guilyardi: Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models
Mike Halpert: United States El Niño Impacts
Dennis Hartmann: The warm-cold split over North America
Kris Karnauskas: El Niño and the Galápagos
Benjamin Kirtman: Another use for ENSO forecasts: predicting high-tide flooding in the U.S.
Phil Klotzbach: How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017?
Sang-Ki Lee: Do you know that El Niño has a little brother?
Sukyoung Lee, Kris Karnauskas, Ulla Heede, and Michelle L'Heureux: How the pattern of trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean is critical for understanding the future climate
Aaron Levine: Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring
Mike McPhaden: Has climate change laready affected ENSO?
Mike McPhaden: Predicting El Niño Then and Now
Ángel Muñoz: La Niña, did you orchestrate this?
Adam Sobel: No El Niño yet, but temperatures in tropical atmosphere are already warm
Amy Solomon, Gil Compo: The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign
William Sweet, Greg Dusek, John Callahan, Analise Keeney, Karen Kavanaugh: El Niño means an even floodier future is on the coastal horizon
Andrew Watkins: El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond
S.-Y. Simon Wang: How might El Niño affect wildfires in California?
Ken Takahashi: One forecaster’s view on extreme El Niño in the eastern Pacific
Ken Takahashi: ENSO forecasters in offices getting coffee
Haiyan Teng: Coming to pay per view: Reigning champ ocean vs. the scrappy land
Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore: ENSO and tornadoes
Michael Tippett and Tim Delsole: What is predictability?
Kai-Chih Tseng, with Nat Johnson: When rivers reach the sky
S.-Y. Simon Wang: The long arm of the California drought
Tim Woollings: What is the jet stream?
Breanna Zavadoff and Marybeth Arcodia: What are teleconnections? Connecting eaerth's climate patterns via global information superhighways |
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Top of the month posts (forecast discussion)

2024

January 2024 La Niña update: for the birds

2023

December 2023 El Niño update: adventure
November 2023 El Niño update: transport options
October 2023 El Niño update: big cats
September 2023 ENSO Outlook: An El Niño convo
January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2
August 2023 El Niño update: back to school
July 2023 El Niño update: learning the steps
June 2023 ENSO update: El Niño is here
May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door
April 2023 ENSO update: El Niño Watch
March 2023 ENSO update: no more La Niña!
February 2023 ENSO update: the ENSO Blog investigates, part 3
January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2

2022

December 2022 La Niña update: the ENSO Blog investigates, part 1
November 2022 La Niña update: Let’s get some exercise
October 2022 La Niña update: snack size
September 2022 La Niña update: it’s Q & A time
August 2022 ENSO update: Summer Nights
July 2022 La Niña update: comic timing
June 2022 ENSO update: how does your garden grow
May 2022 ENSO update: piece of cake
April 2022 La Niña update: measuring up
March 2022 La Niña update: three-bean salad
February 2022 La Niña update: just along for the ride
January 2022 La Niña update: family game night

2021

December 2021 La Niña update: visual aids
November 2021 La Niña update: movie night
October 2021 ENSO update: La Niña is here!
September 2021 ENSO update: feeling groovy
August 2021 ENSO update: Rockin’ out of neutral?
July 2021 ENSO update: La Niña Watch
June 2021 ENSO update: neutral noodle
May 2021 ENSO update: bye for now, La Niña!
April 2021 ENSO update: spring triathlon
March 2021 ENSO update: fine feathered friends
February 2021 ENSO update: library time
January 2021 La Niña update: remote destinations

2020

December 2020 La Niña update: walking in a La Niña winter wonderland
November 2020 La Niña update: just us chickens
October 2020 La Niña update
September 2020 ENSO update: La Niña is here!
August 2020 ENSO update: ahoy, mateys
July 2020 ENSO update: La Niña Watch!
June 2020 ENSO update: pet projects
May 2020 ENSO update: road trip
April 2020 ENSO Update: Alternative Communication
March 2020 ENSO update: puzzle time
February 2020 ENSO update: mind reading
January 2020 ENSO update: new year, new you

2019

December 2019 ENSO update: neutral, rinse, repeat
November 2019 ENSO update: the people in your neighborhood
October 2019 ENSO update: fright night
September 2019 ENSO update: feeling neutral
August 2019 El Niño Update: Stick a fork in it
July 2019 El Niño update: I think I’ll go for a walk
June 2019 ENSO Blog Update: Concentrate and ask again
May 2019 El Niño Update: Feliz Cumpleaños
April 2019 El Niño update: You are here
March 2019 El Niño Update: Think spring
February 2019 ENSO Update: El Niño conditions are here

2018

December 2018 ENSO Update: relationship advice
November 2018 ENSO Update: (Just a little bit of ) history repeating
October 2018 ENSO update: Trick or treat!
September 2018 ENSO Update: back to school
August 2018 ENSO update: game show edition
June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch!
May 2018 ENSO update: Thar she goes
April 2018 ENSO update: what lurks beneath
March 2018 ENSO update: come on in, the water’s fine
February 2018 La Niña update: tuned in
January 2018 La Niña update: summiting the peak

2017

December 2017 La Niña update: Double, double
November 2017 La Niña update: She’s back!
October 2017 ENSO update: Still watching for La Niña
September ENSO update: La Niña Watch!
August 2017 ENSO update: Extreme neutral!
July 2017 ENSO update: Holding steady
June 2017 ENSO update: pancake breakfast
May 2017 ENSO Update: Mayday
April 2017 ENSO update: Conflicting signals
March 2017 ENSO update: on the fence
February 2017 ENSO update: bye-bye, La Niña!
January 2017 ENSO update: Happy New Year!

2016

December 2016 ENSO Update: Weeble wobbles
November 2016 La Niña update: Hello, lady!
Antici...pation: October 2016 ENSO forecast
September 2016 ENSO update: Cooling our heels
August 2016 ENSO update: Wavy gravy
July 2016 ENSO discussion: Enjoy neutral while it lasts!
June 2016 ENSO discussion: The new neutral
May 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: Switcheroo!
April 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: What goes up…
March 2016 El Niño update: Spring Forward
February 2016 El Niño update: Q & A…and some Thursday-morning quarterbacking
January El Niño update: It’s got a lot going on

2015

December El Niño update: phenomenal cosmic powers!
November El Niño update: It’s a small world
October 2015 El Niño update: Pumpkin spice
September 2015 El Niño Update and Q&A
August 2015 El Niño update: Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious
July 2015 El Niño update: Bruce Lee?
June El Niño update: Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead
May 2015 ENSO Forecast: Will this El Niño be an overachiever, or peaked-in-high-school?
Details on the April ENSO Forecast
March 2015 ENSO discussion: El Niño is here
Details on the February ENSO Discussion: On the edge?
January ENSO update: The little engine that couldn't quite

2014

December's ENSO Update: Close, but no cigar.
Details on the November ENSO forecast: slip-slidin’ away?
Details on the October ENSO Diagnostic Discussion: Trust, but verify.
Details on the September ENSO diagnostic discussion—late, or never?
Details on the August 7th ENSO Discussion: how has the forecast changed?
EN... SO? |
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Elsewhere on Climate.gov

ENSO page/US impacts tab
ENSO page/global impacts tab
How El Niño and La Niña affect the jet stream and U.S. winter climate
Global impacts of El Niño and La Niña
Winter temperature patterns for every El Niño since 1950
Winter precipitation patterns during every El Niño since 1950
Precipitation patterns during every La Niña winter since 1950
Temperature patterns during every La Niña winter since 1950
Historically, how has El Niño influenced summer temperature and precipitation around the world? |

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