2020 Census Undercounts in Six States, Overcounts in Eight

The U.S. Census Bureau today released more results from its 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), showing population undercounts and overcounts by state and the District of Columbia.

The PES estimated that counts for 36 states and the District of Columbia did not have a statistically significant undercount or overcount in the 2020 Census and that there were undercounts in six states and overcounts in eight.

Previously released PES results for the nation showed no statistically significant net coverage error for the total population, although undercounts and overcounts by race, Hispanic origin, age, sex and home ownership varied.

The PES measures the coverage of the household population (excluding Remote Alaska areas). It doesn’t measure the coverage of people living in group quarters, such as college dormitories, nursing homes, prisons, etc.

A net coverage error rate is the difference between the census count and the PES estimate of the number of people in the United States expressed as a percentage of the PES estimate. Note that neither represent a “true count” because, of course, it is impossible to achieve a perfect count.

If an estimated net coverage error is negative, it means the census counts may have been too low and the census missed some people. We call this an undercount. If it is positive, it means the census counts may have been too high, indicating some people may have been counted in error or more than once. We call this an overcount.

While the 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey can estimate undercounts and overcounts in the census, PES data cannot answer why a particular state may have experienced one.

But keep in mind that the net coverage error is based on survey estimates derived from 114,000 household responses. As such, it is subject to statistical uncertainty as with all survey-based estimates.

Here, we answer a series of questions about the state and national PES results, including insight on specific census operations.

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