Births Now Outpacing Deaths in Over Half the States

Births in 2023 once again began to outpace deaths in over half of U.S. states as mortality declined, inching closer to pre-pandemic levels, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released today.

By July 1, 2023, natural change had rebounded slightly with only 19 states experiencing natural decrease, according to provisional data. And the South and the Northeast returned to being the regions with the most states with more deaths than births, although the levels were still much lower than during the two previous periods.

Natural increase (more births than deaths) had been on the decline since 2020 and more states had natural decrease (more deaths than births) in the first years of the decade than at any point in the 2010s, driven largely by mortality hikes combined with smaller decreases in births.

Areas with large older populations often experience natural decrease and shrinking populations in the absence of migration. Prior to 2020, natural increase for the United States hovered around one million a year. It began declining in 2020 but this national trend obscured widespread natural decrease at the state level since the beginning of the decade.

In the 2010s, only four states (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and West Virginia) consistently had more deaths than births. But from 2020 to 2021 and 2021 to 2022, half of all states experienced natural decrease. While 19 states rebounded slightly, 15 — mostly in the South — experienced natural decrease during all estimates periods between April 1, 2020 (Census Day) and July 1, 2023.

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