U.S. Geological Survey, National and Global Petroleum Assessment. Fact Sheet 2017–3033, June 2017.
The result: mean undiscovered, technically recoverable continuous resources of 119 million barrels of oil and 944 billion cubic feet of gas in the Hungarian part of the Pannonian Basin Province.
Figure 1: the Pannonian Basin Province and its five assessment units. Source: National Park Service base. USGS.
The basin
The Neogene Pannonian Basin is a structurally complex region ringed by the eastern Alps, western Carpathians, Munții Apuseni, outer and southern Carpathians and Dinaric Alps. Reviewing its geology and geochemistry, Badics and Vető (2012) judged the best shale oil and gas prospects to be in three rock units — the targets of this assessment:
| Petroleum system | Assessment units | Geologic model |
|---|---|---|
| Triassic Kössen | Kössen Shale Oil; Kössen Shale Gas | oil and gas kept in organic-rich shales (up to 19 weight percent organic carbon) |
| Lower Jurassic | Mecsek Tight Gas | gas from coals and carbonaceous shales moved a short way into tight reservoirs |
| Lower Oligocene | Tard Shale Oil; Tard Shale Gas | oil and gas kept in the Tard shales |
The units follow Badics and Vető's mapping.
Key inputs
Table 1. Minimum / mode / maximum (mean). Drainage areas, estimated ultimate recoveries (EUR) and success ratios come from U.S. shale-oil, shale-gas and tight-gas analogs; every unit's minimum production area is 480 acres.
| Unit | Production area, acres (mode / max / mean) | Drainage per well, acres | Success, % | Average EUR per well | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kössen Shale Oil | 60,000 / 120,000 / 60,160 | 40–120 (80) | 10–90 (50) | 0.04 / 0.08 / 0.2 (0.086) million bbl | 0.9 |
| Kössen Shale Gas | 50,000 / 100,000 / 50,160 | 80–160 (120) | 10–90 (50) | 0.1 / 0.3 / 0.7 (0.319) billion cu ft | 0.9 |
| Mecsek Tight Gas | 1,300,000 / 4,000,000 / 1,766,827 | 40–120 (80) | 10–90 (50) | 0.04 / 0.08 / 0.4 (0.098) billion cu ft | 0.5 |
| Tard Shale Oil | 408,000 / 816,000 / 408,160 | 40–120 (80) | 10–90 (50) | 0.02 / 0.04 / 0.1 (0.043) million bbl | 0.8 |
| Tard Shale Gas | 255,000 / 509,000 / 254,827 | 80–160 (120) | 10–90 (50) | 0.04 / 0.1 / 0.8 (0.138) billion cu ft | 0.8 |
Results
Table 2: fully risked. F95 means a 95-percent chance of at least that amount; F5, a 5-percent chance.
| Unit | Oil, million barrels: F50 / F5 (mean) | Gas, billion cubic feet: F50 / F5 (mean) | NGL, million barrels (mean) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kössen Shale Oil | 26 / 70 (30) | 51 / 145 (59) | 1 |
| Kössen Shale Gas | — | 54 / 140 (60) | 1 |
| Mecsek Tight Gas | — | 0 / 2,112 (533) | 5 |
| Tard Shale Oil | 79 / 229 (89) | 152 / 476 (178) | 4 |
| Tard Shale Gas | — | 79 / 366 (114) | 2 |
| Total | 105 / 299 (119) | 336 / 3,239 (944) | 13 (range 0–45) |
Every unit's F95 is zero.
Sources
Based on Assessment of Continuous Oil and Gas Resources in the Pannonian Basin Province, Hungary, 2016, USGS Fact Sheet 2017–3033, by the Pannonian Basin Province Assessment Team: Christopher J. Schenk, Timothy R. Klett, Phuong A. Le, Michael E. Brownfield and Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, U.S. Geological Survey; a work of the United States government in the public domain. The map and both tables are taken from the fact sheet's PDF, which the import had left out. The fact sheet writes the names without accents, as "Kossen" and "Veto."
Licence: CC0 1.0 (public domain) · Adapted from pubs.usgs.gov
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