Pancreatic Cancer Survival Rates & Prognosis

If you or someone close to you has been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, you may be asking: How serious is this cancer? What is the prognosis? What are survival rates among people with similar diagnoses?

Prognosis and survival rates vary from person to person and depend on many factors. Talk with your doctor to get a better understanding of the expected outcome of your cancer.

The survival statistics on this page refer to people with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, the most common type of pancreatic cancer. Prognosis is very different for other types of pancreatic cancer, such as Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors.

Understanding your pancreatic cancer prognosis

A pancreatic cancer prognosis is the likely outcome or course of pancreatic cancer. Prognosis is often used to estimate how long a person may live after receiving a pancreatic cancer diagnosis. Understanding your prognosis will help you talk with your doctor and make decisions about treatment.

Many factors affect your pancreatic cancer prognosis, including:

• Stage at diagnosis. Early-stage pancreatic cancer has a better prognosis than late, stage 4 pancreatic cancer when the cancer has spread to other organs.
• How much of the cancer is removed by surgery. Prognosis is best when the cancer can be completely removed by surgery.
• Overall health. Your general health and ability to withstand treatment can affect your prognosis. For example, significant weight loss or suddenly being less able to complete daily tasks can indicate a poorer prognosis.
• Tumor grade. Low-grade tumors—those that grow and spread more slowly—have a better prognosis than high-grade tumors.
• Tumor markers. High initial blood levels of the tumor markers CA 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) can indicate a poorer prognosis.
• Treatment response. How well the cancer responds to treatment, such as chemotherapy, targeted therapy, or surgery, and how soon the cancer may come back after a response to treatment may help determine prognosis. When the tumor has changes in certain genes, such as BRCA1, BRCA2, or PALB2, these genetic changes can influence how a tumor responds to some chemotherapies, sometimes leading to better outcomes.

Most pancreatic cancers are diagnosed at a later stage and cannot be cured. You may receive treatment to help you live longer, try to shrink the cancer, or relieve symptoms to make you feel more comfortable. Learn about Pancreatic Cancer Treatment and Advanced Cancer.

Survival statistics for pancreatic cancer

Doctors estimate pancreatic cancer prognosis by using statistics collected over many years from people with pancreatic cancer. One commonly used statistic is the 5-year relative survival rate. The 5-year relative survival rate tells you what percentage of people with the same type and stage of pancreatic cancer are alive 5 years after their cancer was diagnosed, compared with people in the overall population.

The overall 5-year relative survival rate for all stages of pancreatic cancer is 13%. This means that about 13 out of 100 people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer are expected to be alive 5 years after their diagnosis, compared to people without cancer.

The most recent 5-year relative survival rates for pancreatic cancer from NCI’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, representing the period 2015–2021, are:

• 44% for localized pancreatic cancer (cancer that has not spread outside the pancreas)
• 17% for regional pancreatic cancer (cancer that has spread to nearby tissues or lymph nodes)
• 3% for distant pancreatic cancer (cancer that has spread to distant parts of the body)

Learn more about statistics for pancreatic cancer from our Cancer Stat Facts Collection.

Talking with your doctor to make sense of cancer statistics

Because survival statistics are based on large groups of people, they cannot be used to predict exactly what will happen to you. The doctor who knows the most about your situation is in the best position to discuss these statistics and talk with you about your prognosis. When reviewing survival statistics, it’s important to note:

• No two people are entirely alike, and responses to treatment can vary greatly.
• It takes several years to see the effect of newer and better treatments, so the effects of more recently introduced therapies like targeted therapy or better supportive care may not be reflected in current survival statistics.

Using nomograms to predict prognosis

Nomograms for pancreatic cancer are validated, user-friendly statistical tools that can be used to predict individual outcomes such as overall survival or survival after surgery. The tool lets you enter specific data related to your diagnosis and situation such as tumor size and grade, CA19-9 levels, age, weight loss, and other information. The nomogram creates personalized probability scores for survival or recurrence. These tools may help you and your doctor make better informed treatment decisions.

Nomograms are freely available on the websites of major cancer centers. The most commonly used nomogram is Pancreas Cancer Survival Calculator from MD Anderson Cancer Center.

Learn more about survival statistics and access videos of patients and their doctors exploring their feelings about prognosis at Understanding Cancer Prognosis.

Coping with your prognosis

Receiving a prognosis can be overwhelming. If you or a loved one is facing pancreatic cancer, consider seeking support from your health care team, support groups, and counseling services. These resources can provide emotional support and help you navigate the challenges ahead.

Learn more about Coping with Pancreatic Cancer.

Where this page came from

This page was imported from National Cancer Institute. Published by the National Cancer Institute and, as a work of the United States government, in the public domain; material credited to others is left out.

Nobody has written it yet — it is the source material at a new address, which is why search engines are asked to skip it and why no one earns from it. It is up for grabs: take it on, and it is yours to rewrite and to earn from.