Climate variation and its effects on our land and water : Part C, Geological Survey climate plan

A program to improve understanding climate

Why expand earth-science climate research? ---- 2 Why a USGS climate program? -- --- - 3 Major objective ------------------------------- 4 Program elements --------------------------------- 5 Consequences of climatic variation on land and

Understanding climate change ----- ___- --- 9 Research related to monitoring climate

Data management ------------------------------- 13 Management of Geological Survey program ---------- 14

SUMMARY

Earth-science research on climate variation can make major contributions toward understanding the causes of climate variation and estimating its impacts. Current efforts especially need to be expanded that will (1) improve the ability to estimate probabilities and impacts of future change, and (2) better document the natural variability of climate so as to explore causes of climate.

A program is proposed that will enable the Geological Survey to fulfill its national responsibilities as part of the coordinated multi-agency National Climate Program. Goals, approaches, and tasks are specified for each of five program elements:

Consequences of climate variation on land and water resources. An understanding of geologic, hydrologic, and biologic responses to climate change is needed to estimate possible effects of droughts and cold seasons, infrequent catastrophic events (flash floods, hurricanes, accelerated erosion, landslides, mudflows, and dust storms), and slight climate shifts that affect sensitive environments. This knowledge will improve resource management.

Recurrence of climate variations that affect land and water resources.

Time-sequence data provided by the recent geologic record are needed to estimate the probability of recurrence of climate related events including droughts and hazardous floods, mudflows, and hurricane erosion. Actuarial estimates like these will probably always be the main basis for certain land and water management decisions. Understanding climate change. Climate history must be better defined from the recent geologic record in order to search for recurring patterns of change, to determine maximum rates of change, and to constrain climate theories, including the effects on climate of geologic events such as volcanic eruptions. Research related to monitoring climate. Geological Survey research will contribute to monitoring and understanding of several components of the climate system: ice, snow, and water runoff processes, improved interpretation of satellite image data; effects of land use on climate; and paleoclimate techniques. Data management. This program element will provide effective information transfer from scientists to users in order to maximize use of climate data in public planning.

A PROGRAM TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS

Climate is taking on increased importance in our national concerns and our national planning. A United States Climate Program has been recommended by the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences} by Congressional hearings? and it has received Presidential endorsement. Expanded study of climate will involve many agencies and disciplines. Earth-science research is one of several vital components (fig. 1).

Now is a time of accelerating risk. As we approach the limits of our natural resources, the increasing use and misuse of resources poses the danger of major economic and political upheavals caused by climate variation. Concern is spreading that the long-term increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuel is raising global temperatures. Temporary imbalances in food production and water availability cause major economic and political disruptions. Our resources of soil, deep ground water, and forests are being reduced by misuse. If we are to reverse this trend and manage our resources intelligently for the future, we must know where climate is heading and what will be the consequences. Now is the time to embark on a program of research toward this end.

Now also is a time of scientific promise. The research capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey and other earth-science institutions can substantially improve our knowledge of climate and its impacts on mankind. Many studies of climate are already underway throughout the world (see lists of involved international organizations and Federal agencies in Part A of this report, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 776-A). Earth-science team research efforts supported by the National Science Foundation have, for example, led to recent advances in our knowledge of oceanic climates through Quaternary time? to global maps of ice-age conditions essential to the refinement of atmospheric circulation models4, and to improved abilities to interpret past climate from tree rings? Increasingly, interdisciplinary efforts are integrating earth sciences with meteorology and other sciences, and data are emerging that hold promise of correlating climate variations with such events as volcanic eruptions, variations in earth orbit, sunspot frequency, and perhaps geomagnetic reversals. The recent "track record" of these programs offers promise of even more progress if they are supported adequately.

The Workshop on Earth Scientists' Perspective of Climate Change provided a focus for and an important step in coordinating the diverse climate-related investigation activities in the Geological Survey. Two companion reports from the workshop highlight the role of earth science in climatic research (U.S. Geological Survey

climate-related activities in the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey Circular 776-B). It became clear during the workshop that an expanded program of research on the earth-science aspects of climate is needed to help satisfy an urgent need for better information on climatic variability and its impacts. This third part of the workshop report therefore proposes such a program of research.

The U.S. Geological Survey functions as the Government's earth scientist. Implicit in this role is a responsibility to assure the Government and the public that earth-science information is being developed at a rate sufficient to promote understanding of climatic variability and its impacts on land and water resources.

The participants in the Geological Survey workshop, along with many other earth scientists, feel strongly that current national efforts toward this goal are insufficient. Greater research efforts are especially needed to:

Obtain better areal and temporal records of long-term variations in climate in order to document the physical limits of the natural variability of climate and to explore possible causes of climatic change.

Develop quantitative methods of estimating probabilities and consequences of future climate changes so that planners can adequately assess their impacts. Climatic impacts, especially, have received far too little attention. Climatic variations and their effects on the continents, which impact man most directly, need particular emphasis. Only with substantially greater effort can there be hope of estimating with confidence the likelihood and consequences of adverse climatic variation.

The workshop participants therefore recommend that the Geological Survey mount a research program devoted to understanding climatic variability and its consequences on the Nation's land and water. A program plan is offered here to meet Geological Survey responsibilities to A_ United States. Qimate Program Plan. An object in presenting this plan is to seek comment and advice from the scientific community, government entities, and data users that will assist the effectiveness of the Geological Survey climate program. This expanded program will be an integral part of the United States Climate Program that is coordinated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Agency roles are described in _A United States Climate FVogram Plan and in Part A of this report (U.S. Geol. Survey Circular 776-A).

Geological Survey earth-science research to improve our understanding of climate will complement paleoclimatic research sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF). Much of the NSF research has been focused on records from the deep sea floor. The Geological Survey program focuses on continental records; it thus complements much of the research being carried out by the academic community and provides a source of in-house technical advice to the government on geologic aspects of climate.

The objective of a climate program within the Geological Survey is to provide information on past, present, and future climates and the possible responses of our land and water resources to climatic changes. As shown in figures 1 and 2, this information may be applied both directly to resource management and through climate theory to modeling and eventual prediction. The program must encourage the development of basic concepts in earth sciences and provide for an efficient flow of information both to land and water managers and to research programs in meteorology and other disciplines that need geologic information to provide boundary conditions for climate theories. Part of this information flow can be assured through close coordination with other Federal agencies (fig. 1; see Circular 776-A).

The USGS program will use Geological Survey expertise and, through grants and contracts, the abilities of universities, States, and other institutions. The Geological Survey program is outlined in figure 2 which shows how the five major program elements are related:

These five program elements correspond to the program categories identified by the United States Climate Program Plan (table 1), though the correspondence is imperfect because the Survey program emphasizes the impacts of climatic variation on land and water resources. The program is designed to fulfill USGS responsibilities to the United States Climate Program (table 1). Each of the five elements of the Geological Survey Climate Plan are discussed below, along with examples of that element's goals, technical approach, and specific tasks. Consequences of climate variation on land and water resources Recurrence of climate variations that affect land and water resources Understanding climate change Research related to monitoring climate Data management

PROGRAM ELEMENTS

Develop fundamental understanding of geologic, hydrologic, and biologic response to climate conditions and climate change for different environments. Distinguish effects of changing land and water use from geologic and hydrologic responses to variable climate. Evaluate the dependency of hazards (such as landslides or mudflows) on climate and better understand the effects of catastrophic climatic events (such as hurricane-induced floods) that occur too infrequently in the historical record for adequate knowledge. Determine the expected reaction of sensitive and fragile environments such as arid lands, tundra, wetlands, and strip-mined lands to slight shifts in climate.

Understand the effects of droughts and assess the interdependence of water and other resources as a basis for improved water management strategies. Approach

Sound environmental planning in the future will include consideration of the physical consequences that would result from possible variations in climate patterns. Knowledge of the probable responses of land and water resources can be obtained from extrapolation of the changing balances between the land, water, and life systems during minor variation of our present climate, and from earth-science evidence of the past balances under different climates.

Data must be obtained on current processes, such as erosion, and intergrated with data from the past record, such as geologic evidence for erosion, in order to develop an understanding of the physical and chemical mechanisms involved. Fundamental knowledge of such processes will improve appraisals of the response of land, water, and life to climatic variation. This will allow, for instance, an understanding of the relative importance of climate variation versus land use on desertification. Fundamental understanding of processes, furthermore, aides in interpreting paleoclimatic data from indirect evidence in the geologic record and thereby reconstructing past climates.

Priority areas for research are sensitive environments such as the arid Southwest, Alaska tundra, semi-arid Great Plains (whose agriculture is very sensitive to climate), and wetlands of the Southeast. Records of past and current changes are most pronounced in such areas and the impacts of future changes will be greatest there. Tasks

Relate changes in surface and underground water resources to observed climates. Determine the physical effects of flash floods, as examples of climatic extremes, in Appalachia, Colorado, and the Southwest. Determine the erosional and offshore depositional effects of infrequent catastrophic coastal storms along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

Study processes and rates of natural and man-induced wind erosion and deposition in times of drought.

Monitor the response of glaciers to varying climate in order to assess hazards from outbursts on glacier-dammed lakes and calving of icebergs into shipping lanes. Determine the effects of disruption of tundra and permafrost under warmer conditions. Prepare regional and national maps of land and water conditions at times of extreme past climates, such as the cold regime 300 years ago and the warm period about 6000 years ago, and assess how future land use could be adapted to those conditions under future climates.

Perform an audit of the 1930's drought in order to guide in the development of drought contingency plans. Search for climate correlations with vegetation changes over time Develop a history of drought recurrence, magnitude, and duration in the recent geologic record of the arid Southwest and the Great Plains using evidence from tree rings, plant communities, deposition of windblown dust, lake sediments, and arroyo cutting and arroyo alluvial deposition. Develop long chronologies of streamflow for rivers in California, Washington, the Southwest, and the Great Plains using tree rings and other evidence in order to improve information about the persistence and frequency of low flows. Determine the extent to which our designed water resource systems are sufficiently resilient to cope with extreme droughts and with post-drought recovery (abandoning wells, returning to the use of surface water, and recharging the ground water supply). Develop methods for identifying and dating hurricane passage in nearshore sediment and fauna, and develop time sequences of hurricane recurrence along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Develop a chronology of alluviation over the past several hundred years in a variety of settings across the continent in order to establish the frequency and distribution of catastrophic flood events. Develop a history of flash flooding in Appalachia, the Colorado Front Range, and the Southwest by dating old flood deposits using botanical and radiocarbon techniques. Perform statistical analyses and seek persistent patterns in tree ring records of climate. Goals Develop a basic record of past climatic patterns on the continent to identify geologic constraints to the development of climate theories and models. Determine whether distinctive patterns of climatic sequences have recurred in the geologic record. Determine the rates of past major changes in climate and whether "warning signs" of change can be identified. Evaluate the potential effects on climate of geologic phenomena such as volcanic eruptions.

A major challenge facing science is to develop a capacity for short- and long-range climate prediction. To approach this will require sustained long-term efforts in many scientific disciplines. An initial objective must be to understand the climatic variability of the past.

It is the earth sciences that provide long records of past climatic variation. These records allow modern climates to be viewed with a long-term perspective, and they are essential to the development of useful models of climate change. "In general, the record of past climate indicates that the longer the available record, the more extreme are the apparent climatic variations. An immediate consequence of this... characteristic is that the largest climatic changes are not revealed by the relatively short record of instrumental observation but must instead be sought through paleoclimatic A global shift in atmospheric circulation that initiated major climatic change would be enormously disruptive. Even though the larger consequences could require centuries to develop fully, the Earth's inhabitants and their terrestrial resources could be severely affected by adverse climate in a very short time. Some evidence suggests, for example, that persisting snow (incipient glaciers) could form over large areas in just a very few years, causing worldwide cooling and possibly an irreversible progression toward a full-blown ice age. The atmospheric behavior prior to such climatic change is unknown, but study of the geologic record of past changes offers hope that we can learn something of two aspects: (1) the nature of any warning signs that precede major change, and (2) the possible rates of major climatic changes. Some of the most complete records of global climate change through the last several glaciations are derived from analysis of ocean-bottom cores, but the very nature of these data precludes much information of rates of atmospheric change or climatic fluctuations of short duration such as 100 years or less. Short-interval information on past climatic sequences ajid the rates of climate change at times of maximum studies. The record of past climates also contains important information on the range of climatic variability, the mean recurrence interval of rare climatic events, and the tendency for systematic timewise behavior or periodicity. Such climatic characteristics are in general shown poorly, if at all, by the available instrumental records."6 change can be obtained most accurately from the paleoclimatic record on land.

Evidence is mounting that climate may be markedly influenced by volcanic eruptions, dust storms, and perhaps other geologic phenomena such as geomagnetic reversals. High-altitude dust from large eruptions has been known to persist in the stratosphere for months and markedly change the radiation balance on regional and global scales. Can climate change be triggered by such events? The answer can come from geologic records of large eruptions and dust-erosion events when they are correlated precisely with a detailed climate history of the same periods. The volumes of ash from large prehistoric eruptions are indicated by the areal extent and thickness of correlative ash layers in geologic sections. Major dust storms are identified by their erosional and depositional records.

How seriously do man's activities impact the climate? The recent National Academy of Sciences book Energy and Climate raises concern that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuel could cause global warming, possibly to the point of eventually melting the ice caps and flooding coastal cities. Estimates of such manmade effects, which are vitally needed for policy decisions, will emerge as the controls and mechanics of our climate system become better understood. One key to possible causes comes from study of climatic responses to boundary conditions vastly different from today's; these conditions are represented both in the record of the geologic past and in the geologic record of climatic history on Mars and other planets.

Develop understanding of the processes governing drainage basins and snow and ice fields and the relations between precipitation, temperature, and cloudiness and runoff, glacier flow and icebergs. Improve techniques for determing snow cover, soil moisture and temperature, and other ground-surface characteristics. Evaluate land-use effects on local and regional climate. Improve techniques for documenting, dating, and determining climatic parameters from geologic materials.

The climate system contains three main interacting fluid components (air, sea, ice) subject to the boundary conditions of the earth's surface configuration and rotation and the sun's radiation. Primary responsibility for routine monitoring of the air and sea components lies with other agencies and institutions. Geological Survey responsibilities include improving understanding of the interactions between precipitation, snow and ice, cloudiness, and runoff. Major advances in understanding glacial processes, especially, must be made.

Support of regional and global monitoring of the present climate requires improved techniques for determining snow cover in forested areas, soil moisture and vegetative cover. Development of such techniques will enable the appropriate agencies to monitor changing land, water, and snow and ice conditions regionally and globally from satellite so as to provide data for climate models.

Land use may affect local and regional climate directly through changes such as in albedo, in evaporation of moisture, and in the atmospheric content of wind-blown dust. These effects can be properly evaluated only when we develop a thorough understanding of the interactions between solar radiation, the atmosphere, and different ground and dust characteristics. This understanding will be promoted by continued monitoring of land use and by comparison of modern effects with those indicated in the historic and geologic record.

Development of highly specialized techniques offers the promise for rapid expansion of paleoclimatic knowledge. The successful attainment of the goals of the USGS climate program will require expanded facilities and skills for documenting, dating, and determining the climatic significance of geologic materials. Some techniques, such as determining past temperature from isotopic composition, need testing and improvement. Others, such as in tree-ring research, are developed but need enhanced facilities to carry them out. Still others, such as improved dating and correlation, need to be developed so as to fill "blind spots" in the existing technology. Tasks Investigate the mechanisms of growth, basal sliding and surging of glaciers in order to understand the dynamics and thermodynamics of the major ice sheets and their long-term interactions with the oceans and atmosphere. Develop models that can provide quantitative climate information from data on the advance and retreat of glaciers. Improve techniques for interpreting snow and ice data from remote sensing. Improve techniques for obtaining soil-moisture and temperature information from remote sensing. Determine the properties and potential effects on climate of wind blown dust caused by poor land use. Develop remote-sensing techniques to determine changes in albedo, net radiation, and radiation temperature caused by changing land use in order to evaluate possible modifications to climate. Develop low-cost and versatile methods of artificially exposing sediments and obtaining cores. Expand the known volcanic-ash chronology as a dating tool.

Improve the ability to interpret chemical and isotopic content of tree rings.

Establish a detailed history of the evolution of ecologically very sensitive fossil groups in Quaternary time through establishing an improved biochronology of associated rapidly evolving fossils. Develop radiometric age techniques for sediments too old for carbon-14 and too young for potassium-argon methods. Establish transfer functions by which rainfall and temperature can be better estimated from chemical, isotopic, and biologic composition of geologic materials.

Establish a network of geologic benchmark stations where the geologic response to climate can be monitored over time.

Assure that technical data on earth-science aspects of climate are easily available to both scientific and nonscientific users.

Provide a focus for public and technical inquiry for information on earth-science aspects of climate. Promote the use in public planning of data on climatic impacts. Approach

Management of the enormous base of data needed for climate research and services under the United States Climate Program Plan is the primary responsibility of other agencies, but they will be supported by two current USGS archive activities as well as by activities in NOAA and other agencies. The Geological Survey has primary responsibility for cataloging United States hydrologic data in the National Water Data Exchange (NAWDEX), and also for maintaining files of Landsat satellite imagery and aerial photograph data at the Earth Resources Data Center. The Survey is working with NSF and the Environmental Data Service (EDS) of NOAA to investigate needs for central data cataloging of paleoclimatic data.

A major additional need for data management is in making relevant data more readily available to users. Publication of accurate technical information in reports and maps is a USGS tradition. Transfer of information to users can be further accomplished through workshops and public-oriented products designed to be directly useful in planning and policy making for land and water use. Tasks Prepare maps that show risk of various land uses to climatic variation. Develop dynamic models that simulate interaction of land, water, energy, and food resources in various climate scenarios. Develop water-management strategies that utilize the improved data on hydrologic and biologic responses to possible climate variations. Make regional assessments of climate-related hazards for use in land-use planning, disaster preparation, and insurance. Maintain close interaction with the public through workshops, nontechnical reports and through information that can be used by local public advisors such as agents of the Soil Conservation Service. Encourage educational institutions to devote more attention to the specialized techniques required in earth-science investigations related to climate.

Exact achievements of expanded Geological Survey research on climate of course cannot be predicted. Full implementation of the USGS Climate Plan is likely to result, however, in improvements in our capability for prediction, planning, and management of:

-food production surface and ground water supplies -flood hazards -soil resources wind erosion and deposition -arroyo cutting and gullying fragile environments -lake and reservoir levels hurricanes and catastrophic coastal storms landslides and mudflows glacier hazards land use and development

MANAGEMENT OF GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROGRAM

The expanded earth-science climate program will involve the participation of many groups within the Geological Survey as well as in universities, States, and other recipients of grants and contracts. The accompanying organization chart of the USGS highlights the three active participating units of the Survey: the Geologic Division, Water Resources Division, and Office of Land Information and Analysis. An interdivision committee under the lead of the Geologic Division's Office of Environmental Geology is being established to ensure coordination of current and future climate-related research within the agency. Review of the expanded program can best be accomplished through establishment of an advisory committee. Liaison with other agencies involved in the national climate program is provided through several current biagency coordinating committees and through the Climate Program Coordinating Office recently set up in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to coordinate the climate activities of all Federal agencies. Climate is inherently a global problem and its study has many international aspects. These require that the Geological Survey coordinate with and participate in many of the international programs listed in Part A (Circular 776-A).

Where this page came from

This page was imported from U.S. Geological Survey. Published by the U.S. Geological Survey and, as a work of the United States government, in the public domain.

Nobody has written it yet — it is the source material at a new address, which is why search engines are asked to skip it and why no one earns from it. It is up for grabs: take it on, and it is yours to rewrite and to earn from.