Firearm Homicides and Suicides in America’s Largest Metro Areas, 2012–2016

In 2015–2016, 27,394 Americans died in firearm homicides — 3,224 of them aged 10–19 — and 44,955 in firearm suicides, including 2,118 young people aged 10–19. A CDC team — Scott R. Kegler, Linda L. Dahlberg and James A. Mercy — updated an earlier look at the country's 50 largest metropolitan areas, which hold about 55% of the U.S. population, with special attention to youth.

How it was measured

Deaths came from National Vital Statistics System mortality data for 2012–2013 and 2015–2016, matched to Census population estimates. Homicide rates cover all ages; suicide rates cover people 10 and older, since self-harm intent is not usually attributed to young children. All-age rates are age-adjusted. Metro areas with fewer than 20 deaths in a category were not reported separately.

The headline numbers

Rates per 100,000 residents per year. Source: CDC, MMWR.

Homicide: the decline reversed

The earlier report had found firearm homicide rates falling nationally and in big metros. By 2015–2016, they had risen back to levels like those of 2006–2007, and they stayed higher in large metro areas than nationally, for all ages and for youth. Across the 50 metros, rates ranged from 1.1 per 100,000 in Providence-Warwick to 16.6 in New Orleans-Metairie.

Homicide was the 16th leading cause of death overall in 2015–2016, but the 3rd among 10- to 19-year-olds. Firearms caused 74% of all homicides and 87% of youth homicides.

It was too soon to tell whether the rise was a blip or a trend. From 2015 to 2016, violent crime rose 3.8% nationally, 6.1% in cities of 250,000 or more, 2.2% in suburbs and 1.6% in nonmetropolitan counties, suggesting a short-term rise concentrated in the core cities.

Suicide: a steady climb

Firearm suicide rates kept rising, nationally and in the big metros, and youth rates rose too, though they remained far lower than rates for all ages. Unlike homicide, firearm suicide rates were lower in large metro areas than nationally, matching research showing lower suicide rates in more urban places. They ranged from 1.5 per 100,000 in New York-Newark-Jersey City to 13.5 in Oklahoma City. Males accounted for about 85% of firearm suicides, in the metros and nationally, in both periods.

Suicide was the 10th leading cause of death among people 10 and older and the 2nd among youth; firearms caused 50% of all suicides and 42% of youth suicides.

Suicide rates have risen gradually for about fifteen years, across states, groups, and rural and urban areas alike. Firearm suicide rates fell 7% from 1999 to 2006, then began rising with the 2007–2008 economic downturn and kept rising through the recovery — up 21% from 2006 to 2016, from 6.5 to 7.8 per 100,000 people aged 10 and older. Cities recovered from the downturn faster than rural areas, yet big-metro rates still rose, which suggests many factors at work.

What can help

Reducing homicide. Changing city environments has been significantly linked to fewer gun assaults, youth homicides and other violent crime: fixing up abandoned buildings and vacant lots, greening, street outreach and changing community norms, low-income housing tax credits, and business improvement districts.

Reducing suicide. Strengthening household finances, stabilizing housing, teaching young people coping and problem-solving skills, identifying and supporting people at risk, and prevention policies in schools and workplaces are linked to fewer suicides and suicide attempts and to less substance abuse, depression and isolation.

Access to firearms. The time between deciding to act and a suicide attempt can be 10 minutes or less, and people tend not to switch to another method when a highly lethal one is unavailable. Storing firearms safely, or temporarily removing them from the home during a crisis, can reduce suicide risk, particularly for young people. Barring people convicted of domestic violence, or under a domestic violence restraining order, from having guns has been linked to fewer intimate partner homicides. Stronger background checks might also help, though they need more study.

Limitations

• Nonfatal firearm injury data are not available at the metro level.
• Age groups other than youth were not analyzed separately.

If you or someone you know is thinking about suicide, call or text 988 to reach the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline in the United States.

Sources

Based on Kegler SR, Dahlberg LL, Mercy JA, "Firearm Homicides and Suicides in Major Metropolitan Areas — United States, 2012–2013 and 2015–2016," MMWR, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; a work of the United States government in the public domain.