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In 2023, the country around Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania National Military Park in Virginia had its 2nd warmest year and its 19th driest in records going back to 1895.
Fredericksburg National Cemetery. NPS photo.
The figures come from the Park Service's Mid-Atlantic Inventory and Monitoring Network, which tracks weather and climate as one of the park's ecosystem "vital signs". They are county-scale averages for Caroline, Orange, Spotsylvania and Stafford counties, from NOAA's Climate at a Glance program and its NClimDiv dataset.
Weather or climate? Weather is what the atmosphere does over minutes to months — what you get today. Climate is what you expect from patterns of 30 years or more.
A warm year
Three of the four seasons were well above normal, and nine months were warmer than average. January and February were each more than 8°F above their long-term averages.
2023 temperature rankings by season and for the year; an arrow at the top would mark the warmest on record. Image from the National Park Service's page on the park's 2023 weather.
| Month | Temp. (°F) | vs. 1895–2022 | Precip. (in.) | vs. 1895–2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 42.8 | +8.2 | 2.48 | −0.62 |
| Feb | 45.9 | +9.5 | 2.67 | −0.10 |
| Mar | 47.5 | +2.5 | 1.13 | −2.36 |
| Apr | 59.5 | +4.8 | 3.74 | +0.40 |
| May | 62.5 | −1.5 | 1.96 | −1.92 |
| Jun | 70.1 | −1.9 | 3.58 | −0.47 |
| Jul | 79.2 | +3.1 | 3.46 | −0.73 |
| Aug | 76.1 | +1.6 | 3.00 | −1.41 |
| Sep | 69.4 | +1.4 | 3.63 | −0.05 |
| Oct | 59.9 | +3.2 | 1.09 | −2.25 |
| Nov | 45.8 | −0.3 | 2.42 | −0.52 |
| Dec | 42.5 | +5.5 | 5.84 | +2.72 |
| Year | 58.5 | +3.0 | 35.01 | −7.31 |
A dry year
35.01 inches of rain and snow fell, 7.31 inches below the long-term average. Only April and December were wetter than normal; March and October each fell more than 2 inches short.
2023 precipitation rankings by season and for the year; an arrow at the bottom would mark the driest on record. Image from the National Park Service's page on the park's 2023 weather.
The long trend, and what's forecast
Since 1895, the counties around the park have warmed about 0.2°F per decade, and yearly precipitation has risen about 0.18 inches per decade.
Annual average temperature and total precipitation, 1895–2023, with dashed trend lines. Image from the National Park Service's page on the park's 2023 weather.
Park Service climate models project that by 2100 the park's annual average temperature will rise 2.9–8.8°F, from the best-case to the worst-case scenario, and annual precipitation will rise 8–14% (Gonzalez et al., 2018).
Sources
Based on "2023 Weather in Review: Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania National Military Park," Mid-Atlantic Inventory and Monitoring Network, National Park Service; a work of the United States government in the public domain.
В изданияхFredericksburg & Spotsylvania National Military Park
Лицензия: CC0 1.0 (общественное достояние) · По материалам www.nps.gov
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