Food Security in 76 Countries: What USDA Expected Through 2027

In 2017, about 646 million of the 3.5 billion people in the 76 low- and middle-income countries that USDA studies consumed less than a daily target of 2,100 calories. That is 17.7 percent of the group. USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) expected the share to fall to 8.9 percent by 2027, a count of 372 million people, as projected income growth and sustained low food prices took hold. The assessment is called the International Food Security Assessment, 2017–2027 (IFSA), and this page summarises its outlook as of 2017.

How the model works

All 76 countries are current or historic food aid recipients. The model projects each country's food consumption per person from prices and incomes and compares it with a target of 2,100 calories a day, the level the report says is needed to sustain life at a moderate level of activity; people below it count as food insecure. Differences in access within a country, a community or a household are well documented but beyond the study. Calories are also only one part of food security, and the assessment does not cover the use of food or the stability of supplies.

The "food gap" is the food needed to bring every food-insecure person up to the target, and it measures how intense food insecurity is. ERS projected it to fall in all regions and in most countries, from 28.5 million metric tons of food in grain equivalent in 2017 to 17 million metric tons in 2027.

The outlook was a little less optimistic than the year before. Income growth was still positive but below the previous year's projection, and falling international food prices do not always reach local markets, as in several Sub-Saharan countries with weak currencies or broken supply chains.

Regions

Rising incomes drive the gains

Incomes were expected to rise in almost all 76 countries, and to fall in a handful of Sub-Saharan countries that depend on nonrenewable exports. Average income per person in real U.S. dollars is lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa ($1,313) and highest in Latin America and the Caribbean ($4,092), against more than $50,000 in the United States. North Africa's growth prospects are held back by budget problems, weather risks to grain and falling oil income in Algeria and tourism income in Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt. India was expected to keep growing by more than 7 percent. A strengthening U.S. dollar meant that three-fourths of the countries were projected to see their currencies lose value against it, offsetting part of the gains from higher incomes and cheaper food.

Grain production in the 76 countries was projected to grow 5.9 percent between 2017 and 2027, mostly through higher yields, since many countries are close to the limit of expanding farmland. Latin America and North Africa rely on imports for more than 50 percent of their grain, and commercial imports have historically grown faster than production.

Diets are changing

As incomes rise, people move away from staples such as cereals, roots and tubers toward meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables. Latin America, the richest region of the group, has the lowest share of staples and the highest shares of meat, vegetable oil and sugar; Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest shares of staples and pulses and the lowest of meat, fruit and vegetables. Calorie availability rose in every region between 2000 and 2013:

Asia's calorie availability grew 11 percent, the second fastest, and North Africa's the slowest, 8 percent. The report counts a healthy diet as at least 2,100 calories with 10 percent protein and at least 20 percent fat, and by 2013 every region met those marks except for a slight shortfall in the fat share in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.

The poorest still fall short

Averages hide gaps. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia, the lowest-income households are 20 to 30 percent below the protein target while the highest-income tenth are 20 percent above it, and the gap is largest in Latin America, where income is more unequally shared than in the other two regions. Latin America is the only region whose average fruit and vegetable intake reaches the World Health Organization's 400 grams a day. Sub-Saharan Africa falls short in every income group, and in Asia only the highest-income consumers exceed it.

Sources

• USDA Economic Research Service, Amber Waves, "International Food Security Assessment, 2017–2027" (https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2017/june/international-food-security-assessment-2017-2027), drawn from Meade and Thome, International Food Security Assessment, 2017–27, GFA-28; rewritten in hubnx's own words. The charts, which carry no description, are left out.